Quick answer: Canada’s new national 2026 to 2035 occupational projection identifies 82 occupations with a moderate or strong risk of labour shortage and 22 with a moderate or strong risk of surplus. Health, skilled trades and transport, education and social services, and selected manufacturing roles dominate the shortage list. This is a planning signal, not a promise of a job. Before choosing a program or moving, check the occupation’s three-year outlook, wages, licensing rules and current postings in your specific province or economic region.
FACT: Employment and Social Development Canada’s Canadian Occupational Projection System, or COPS, assesses potential national labour shortage and surplus conditions over ten years. It assessed 459 of 516 NOC 2021 occupations for 2026 to 2035. Fifty-seven occupations were not assessed because of insufficient information.
GOHIRES INTERPRETATION: Use COPS to build a shortlist. Use regional Job Bank evidence and direct employer research to decide whether a specific career is viable for you.
Canada’s 2026 to 2035 job outlook at a glance
COPS projects 7.45 million openings over the decade. About 1.7 million are attributed to employment growth and 5.7 million to replacement needs, primarily retirements. Replacement demand represents 76.6% of projected openings. This distinction matters: a replacement opening may preserve the existing size of an occupation rather than signal a rapidly expanding field.
The system also projects 7.9 million new job seekers entering the labour market and 760,000 leaving it, for a net inflow of 7.16 million. COPS compares occupational demand and supply, not just the number of openings. The official results and full methodology are available in the COPS 2026 to 2035 summary. The release notice says results began appearing progressively on October 30, 2026.
What a shortage-risk occupation actually means
A COPS shortage designation means projected new openings may outpace projected new job seekers at the national occupational level. It does not mean every employer is hiring, every region has a shortage, or an applicant can skip required education, experience or licensing.
| Signal | What it answers | What it cannot prove |
|---|---|---|
| COPS 10-year risk | Could national demand and supply become imbalanced? | Whether your city has openings today |
| Job Bank 3-year outlook | What are the prospects in a province or economic region? | Whether you meet a particular employer’s requirements |
| Current postings | Who is advertising now, and for which skills? | Long-term demand or future competition |
| Licensing and training | Can you legally and practically enter the occupation? | Whether the time and cost will pay off for you |
ANALYSIS: The strongest career signal appears when all four layers point in the same direction: national shortage risk, favourable regional outlook, visible employer demand and a realistic qualification path. A conflict between the layers is a reason to investigate, not automatically reject the occupation.
The 82 occupations projected to face shortage risk
The following tracker reproduces the official occupation groups and NOC 2021 codes published by COPS. The list combines moderate and strong shortage risks. It does not rank occupations by pay, accessibility or probability of employment. An asterisk marks seasonal shortage conditions identified in the source table.
Business, finance and administration: 1 occupation
- 13200: Customs, ship and other brokers
Natural and applied sciences: 5 occupations
- 21300: Civil engineers
- 21310: Electrical and electronics engineers
- 21331: Geological engineers
- 21390: Aerospace engineers
- 22313: Aircraft instrument, electrical and avionics mechanics, technicians and inspectors
Health: 29 occupations
- 31100: Specialists in clinical and laboratory medicine
- 31101: Specialists in surgery
- 31102: General practitioners and family physicians
- 31103: Veterinarians
- 31111: Optometrists
- 31112: Audiologists and speech-language pathologists
- 31120: Pharmacists
- 31121: Dietitians and nutritionists
- 31200: Psychologists
- 31202: Physiotherapists
- 31203: Occupational therapists
- 31209: Other professional occupations in health diagnosing and treating
- 31300: Nursing coordinators and supervisors
- 31301: Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses
- 31302: Nurse practitioners
- 31303: Physician assistants, midwives and allied health professionals
- 32101: Licensed practical nurses
- 32102: Paramedical occupations
- 32103: Respiratory therapists, clinical perfusionists and cardiopulmonary technologists
- 32109: Other technical occupations in therapy and assessment
- 32120: Medical laboratory technologists
- 32121: Medical radiation technologists
- 32122: Medical sonographers
- 32123: Cardiology technologists and electrophysiological diagnostic technologists
- 32124: Pharmacy technicians
- 32201: Massage therapists
- 33100: Dental assistants and dental laboratory assistants
- 33101: Medical laboratory assistants and related technical occupations
- 33102: Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates
Education, law and social, community and government services: 10 occupations
- 41220: Secondary school teachers
- 41221: Elementary school and kindergarten teachers
- 41300: Social workers
- 41320: Educational counsellors
- 42101: Firefighters
- 42201: Social and community service workers
- 42202: Early childhood educators and assistants
- 42203: Instructors of persons with disabilities
- 43100: Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants
- 44101: Home support workers, caregivers and related occupations
Sales and service: 4 occupations
- 62020: Food service supervisors*
- 62201: Funeral directors and embalmers
- 63201: Butchers, retail and wholesale
- 63221: Upholsterers
Trades, transport and equipment operation: 16 occupations
- 72300: Plumbers
- 72310: Carpenters
- 72311: Cabinetmakers
- 72320: Bricklayers
- 72321: Insulators
- 72400: Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics
- 72401: Heavy-duty equipment mechanics
- 72402: Heating, refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics
- 72404: Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors
- 72410: Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers
- 72411: Auto body collision, refinishing and glass technicians and damage repair estimators
- 72422: Electrical mechanics
- 72600: Air pilots, flight engineers and flying instructors
- 72602: Deck officers, water transport
- 74201: Water transport deck and engine room crew
- 75210: Boat and cable ferry operators and related occupations
Natural resources and agriculture: 7 occupations
- 80020: Managers in agriculture
- 84101: Oil and gas well drilling and related workers and services operators
- 84120: Specialized livestock workers and farm machinery operators*
- 85100: Livestock labourers*
- 85101: Harvesting labourers*
- 85102: Aquaculture and marine harvest labourers
- 85103: Nursery and greenhouse labourers*
Manufacturing and utilities: 10 occupations
- 92101: Water and waste treatment plant operators
- 93200: Aircraft assemblers and aircraft assembly inspectors
- 94103: Concrete, clay and stone forming operators
- 94104: Inspectors and testers, mineral and metal processing
- 94141: Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and related workers*
- 94142: Fish and seafood plant workers*
- 94150: Plateless printing equipment operators
- 94211: Assemblers and inspectors of other wood products
- 95104: Labourers in rubber and plastic product manufacturing
- 95107: Labourers in fish and seafood processing*
Career paths with the clearest entry questions
| Pathway | Examples from the shortage list | Qualification question to verify | Hiring evidence to collect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regulated health | Nurses, physicians, pharmacists, therapists, technologists | Which provincial regulator controls entry, and how are Canadian or international credentials assessed? | Regional outlook, health authority postings, clinical placement requirements |
| Apprenticeship trades | Plumbers, carpenters, bricklayers, millwrights, HVAC mechanics | Is the trade compulsory in the province, and can you secure an apprenticeship sponsor? | Union and contractor intake, apprenticeship registrations, regional construction pipeline |
| Education and care | Teachers, early childhood educators, social workers, home support workers | Does the role require provincial certification, registration or a vulnerable-sector check? | School board, municipal, nonprofit and care-provider postings |
| Engineering and aviation | Civil, electrical, geological and aerospace engineers; aircraft technicians | Is a protected professional designation or Transport Canada licence required for the target work? | Employer requirements, project stage, security or citizenship constraints |
| Operations and production | Water treatment, food processing, aircraft assembly, agriculture | Which operator certificates, safety tickets or shift requirements apply? | Plant locations, seasonality, union status, shift premiums and turnover |
Use the federal regulated occupation directory before paying for training. For apprenticeship careers, compare the occupation with the Red Seal trade list and then verify provincial rules.
The 22 occupations projected to face surplus risk
A surplus-risk label is not a prediction that nobody will be hired. Replacement openings, specialized employers and local conditions can still create opportunities. It means projected national labour supply may exceed demand, so applicants should validate location, specialization and portfolio strength more carefully.
- Business, finance and administration: 12012 supervisors, library, correspondence and related information workers; 12113 statistics officers and related research support occupations; 14102 personnel clerks; 14110 survey interviewers and statistical clerks; 14111 data entry clerks.
- Natural and applied sciences: 22112 forestry technologists and technicians; 22222 information systems testing technicians.
- Education and public services: 45100 student monitors, crossing guards and related occupations.
- Art, culture, recreation and sport: 51100 librarians; 51112 technical writers; 51120 producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations; 52100 library and public archive technicians; 52119 other technical and coordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts; 52120 graphic designers and illustrators; 53111 motion pictures, broadcasting, photography and performing arts assistants and operators.
- Sales and service: 64300 maîtres d’hôtel and hosts or hostesses; 65100 cashiers.
- Manufacturing and utilities: 94112 rubber processing machine operators and related workers; 94124 woodworking machine operators; 94200 motor vehicle assemblers, inspectors and testers; 95102 labourers in chemical products processing and utilities; 95105 labourers in textile processing and cutting.
COUNTERPOINT: National surplus risk can coexist with shortages in a remote region, a narrow specialty or an employer with unusual requirements. The correct response is deeper verification, not abandoning a career solely because of one model.
GoHires Career Signal Score: a five-step decision tool
This is an original GoHires framework, not an ESDC rating. Score each category from 0 to 2. A score of 8 to 10 supports deeper investigation; 5 to 7 suggests a cautious test; 0 to 4 means the evidence is currently too weak for a costly commitment.
0: surplus or unassessed; 1: balance; 2: COPS shortage risk.
0: limited or very limited; 1: moderate; 2: good or very good.
0: almost none; 1: intermittent; 2: multiple relevant employers posting repeatedly.
0: blocked or unaffordable; 1: possible with major gaps; 2: clear, funded or realistic path.
0: poor; 1: uncertain; 2: tasks, schedule, location and pay fit your constraints.
Your 30-minute occupation evidence worksheet
- Minutes 0 to 5: identify the exact NOC. Search the Job Bank job profiles. Confirm the main duties match the work you want, not just the title.
- Minutes 5 to 10: compare national and regional signals. Record the COPS risk, then the three-year outlook for your province and economic region. Job Bank explains that its regional outlooks use employment growth, replacement needs and experienced unemployed workers.
- Minutes 10 to 15: inspect wages correctly. Record the low, median and high hourly wage for the exact region and note the data period. Do not treat a national median as a starting salary.
- Minutes 15 to 20: test real demand. Sample at least 20 current postings across three employers. Count repeated credentials, software, licences, shift patterns and experience requirements.
- Minutes 20 to 25: price the entry path. List tuition, tools, exams, licensing, unpaid placements, lost earnings and relocation. Note which costs are estimates.
- Minutes 25 to 30: choose one low-cost test. Speak to a practitioner, attend an apprenticeship intake, complete an introductory module or build a small portfolio sample before committing.
| Field | Your evidence | Date checked |
|---|---|---|
| Occupation and NOC | ____________________________ | ____________ |
| COPS risk | ____________________________ | ____________ |
| Regional 3-year outlook | ____________________________ | ____________ |
| Regional wage range | ____________________________ | ____________ |
| Repeated employer requirements | ____________________________ | ____________ |
| Licence or credential path | ____________________________ | ____________ |
| Next low-cost test | ____________________________ | ____________ |
How to use the outlook if you are changing careers
Start with adjacent occupations, not only the highest-demand occupation. Job Bank’s Job Transition Tool can suggest roles with overlapping skills and estimate whether the training transition is shorter or longer. Then complete a skills gap analysis against real postings.
A career changer should compare three paths:
- Direct entry: you already meet most requirements and need only a focused bridge.
- Adjacent entry: you target a related role first, then build regulated or technical experience.
- Full retraining: the occupation requires a multi-year degree, apprenticeship or provincial licence.
Use GoHires’ career planning process to compare fit and constraints, and the job search funnel tracker to test whether your applications are reaching interviews. If you need short, low-cost training, compare the options in the free AI training guide, but do not substitute a completion certificate for a regulated credential.
Regional verification: Canada is not one labour market
Job Bank’s three-year outlooks are produced by province, territory and economic region. They can differ from the national COPS signal because local industry mix, growth, retirements and available workers differ. The methodology also warns that regional ratings are designed for comparison within a province, not as a single national ranking.
For a practical example, compare the national tracker with GoHires’ regional resources for Ontario in-demand careers and British Columbia in-demand careers. Recheck every source before moving or enrolling because outlooks, tuition, licensing and employer pipelines change.
Limitations and fact-check notes
- Model, not guarantee: COPS projects demand and supply. Economic shocks, policy changes, technology, immigration and employer decisions can change outcomes.
- National scope: a national shortage risk may not exist in your region.
- Occupation groups: a NOC can contain multiple job titles with different tasks and employer expectations.
- Openings are not net new jobs: 5.7 million of the 7.45 million projected openings are replacement needs.
- Unassessed occupations: 57 of 516 occupations were not assessed because of insufficient information.
- Seasonality: several agriculture, food processing and service occupations are marked seasonal in the official table.
- Credential barriers: shortage conditions do not remove licensing, language, security, physical or experience requirements.
- Publication timing: ESDC said the 2026 release was being published progressively from October 30, 2026. Tables may be updated as additional results become available.
Frequently asked questions
Which jobs are most in demand in Canada from 2026 to 2035?
COPS identifies 82 occupations with moderate or strong national shortage risk. Health occupations form the largest group, followed by skilled trades and transport, education and social services, and selected manufacturing and natural-resource roles. The model does not publish a simple best-jobs ranking.
Does a shortage-risk occupation guarantee a job?
No. It signals a projected national imbalance between openings and job seekers. Regional demand, employer requirements, licensing, experience and timing still determine whether an individual can secure work.
Are all 7.45 million projected openings new jobs?
No. About 1.7 million are projected from employment growth. About 5.7 million are replacement needs, primarily retirements. Replacement demand accounts for 76.6% of projected openings.
How should I compare national and provincial outlooks?
Use COPS for the ten-year national direction and Job Bank’s three-year regional outlook for the province or economic region where you intend to work. Investigate when the two signals disagree.
What does surplus risk mean for applicants?
It means projected national labour supply may exceed demand. Hiring can still occur, especially for replacement, niche or regional roles, but applicants should validate specialization, location and portfolio strength before investing heavily.
What is the fastest way to test a career idea?
Confirm the NOC, check the regional outlook and wage data, review at least 20 current postings, price the qualification path and complete one low-cost experience test such as an informational interview, introductory module or portfolio task.
How often should I recheck this outlook?
Recheck COPS when ESDC releases new national projections and review regional Job Bank outlooks at least annually. Recheck active postings and licensing rules immediately before applying, relocating or enrolling.
Can newcomers use this list to choose an immigration program?
This page is a career-planning resource, not immigration advice. Shortage risk does not itself create eligibility for a visa, work permit or permanent-residence stream. Verify current immigration criteria separately and confirm whether your occupation is regulated.
Primary sources and methodology
- Employment and Social Development Canada: COPS summary of results, 2026 to 2035
- Employment and Social Development Canada: COPS release notice and data portal
- Job Bank: COPS and its use in job profiles
- Job Bank: three-year employment outlook methodology
- Job Bank: labour market information sources
- Job Bank: occupation profiles, wages, requirements and regional prospects
Last reviewed: November 4, 2026. GoHires will update this living resource when ESDC publishes material COPS revisions or when regional outlook methods change.